Author: Cozmin Gușă
Today I’ll explain the geopolitical context in our region, which will become explosive this autumn, so you understand the kind of asymmetric pressures Romania will face. Our country is no longer known as autonomously or legitimately governed—today it’s clear that we’re just waiting for the details of decisions made by the geopolitical giants, who will settle who and how exactly will coordinate Romania politically, economically, militarily, and at the intelligence level.
Poland has exaggerated to the maximum, through media hype and positioning, the Russian drone attack, without presenting clear evidence that it was indeed the Russians who struck. The EU hysterically overreacted as usual, without outcome. Trump downplayed the event, saying the Russians had probably made a mistake, but assured the Poles—strictly through their newly elected sovereignist president—that America fully stands with them. For their part, the Russians denied they had attacked, but not too firmly, leaving open the possibility of a minor, victimless strike against Poland, as a sort of warning, perhaps an experiment to test reactions.
Ordinary Poles might ask: “What’s the point of such a minor attack, given Russia’s terrifying arsenal, except as a warning shot?” In my view, it was meant to further convince Poles that confronted with danger and with the uselessness of the Euro-Atlantic Europeans, their only real protection lies with the United States, which Trump promptly and generously offered. At the same time, Trump showed that this support would come only through the U.S.-favored intermediary: Karol Nawrocki, the newly elected sovereignist president—not through the government still led by progressive Donald Tusk. These moves are seeds of future internal crises in Poland, planted with the aim of invalidating the current Brussels-aligned government and triggering early parliamentary elections that would bring the sovereignists back to power.
Serbia. Less than a month has passed since the week of daily, harsh protests against President Vučić’s regime, during which protesters—mostly young people—were beaten and arrested. For a year now, Serbia has seen ongoing protests, leading to a huge wave of popular antipathy and mounting evidence of Vučić’s corruption. Until a few months ago, Vučić and his people could still blame Western manipulation. But America under Trump, combined with repeated visits to Belgrade by his sons seeking lucrative family business deals, has made the “West manipulates the youth” narrative no longer credible.
The hammer blow, however, came from the great Novak Djokovic. Fed up with Serbia’s corruption and abuses, Djokovic began about six months ago to openly and publicly support the students. Nole is not just a great champion, the GOAT in tennis, the most prestigious living athlete, practically a national statue of the Serbs, he is also a global figurehead fighting for rights and normality. Since the pandemic, he has been strong, courageous, consistent, and he’s suffered for it.
Recently, Vučić’s people lost their composure and publicly repeated the slander they’d long used in private: that Djokovic is a traitor for siding with protesters against the regime. Djokovic didn’t argue; instead, he moved quickly, literally moving his residence to neighboring Greece, an Orthodox country. It was a painful self-exile for him and his family, but heartbreaking for the Serbian people. For decades battered, they drew pride and dignity from every Djokovic victory, seeing their flag, hearing Serbian words of thanks, watching their champion cross himself on court.
Understand this: Djokovic’s move to Greece, after being insulted by the regime, is the spark that will ignite Serbia. And Vučić hasn’t apologized; on the contrary, his propaganda outlets repeated the “traitor” line. For older Romanians: remember how you felt when Nadia Comăneci fled the country in the last days of Ceaușescu’s regime—that gives a sense of what Djokovic has triggered in Serbia.
Vučić hopes to smother protests with incoming Chinese investment, or with illusory support from the Putin–Trump duo. But these won’t quell the national revolt—because they’re about money, not spirit. And for Serbs, spirit comes first. Expect a bloody autumn in Belgrade.
Moldova. Briefly today, since I’ll return to it in the next two weeks, leading up to the September 28 parliamentary elections. Maia Sandu is desperately making the rounds in Europe, everywhere she’s received, except Romania, where only the current ruling coalition supports her. Most Romanians detest her for her anti-Romanian behavior (despite her holding Romanian citizenship). She is massively criticized for being a faithful Sorosist.
Her party, PAS, entered a downward spiral even before the campaign. Even pro-government polling institutes now show the pro-Russian bloc led by Igor Dodon and Vladimir Voronin in first place, with a real chance to win. This is a disaster for Moldova, a clear step backward, but it happened because Maia Sandu’s regime not only governed disastrously but also banned any potential reformist political force. In other words, Maia avoided one devil only to fall into the arms of another.
PAS’s score in the parliamentary elections will therefore be very poor—I predict well under 30%. Fraud alone (as practiced in last year’s presidential election, when Sandu narrowly won thanks to the diaspora) will no longer be enough. From the messaging and preparations, it’s clear to me the elections on September 28 will be canceled outright—Sandu betting, like Bucharest’s regime, on Brussels’ backing for this illegal annulment. What happens next is hard to foresee. One thing is certain: Trump will position himself on Moldova only in line with his understandings with Putin regarding the Black Sea region. And as I keep saying, Trump also knows that under Maia Sandu, Moldova is effectively the Soros Republic.
This, then, is the real context in Romania’s neighborhood. Now you know what political games and asymmetric pressures are brewing. It’s clear we’ll feel the shockwaves strongly, but it’s just as clear that we are the least prepared country in the region to withstand any tremors. Why? Because Romania has reached the instability of a ramshackle hut.
