Author: Cozmin Gușă
After speculation sparked by Vladimir Putin’s suggestion that his meeting with Donald Trump might take place in the United Arab Emirates, a region scorching hot at this time of year, it was announced last night that the location will, in fact, be the vast U.S. state of Alaska, considered the cold pole of America.
Alaska belonged to Russia until 158 years ago, when, with the much-praised contribution of an American of Romanian-Hungarian origin, General George Pomutz, who is buried in the legendary Arlington National Cemetery (which I have visited), the territory was sold to the USA. It was the most profitable land transaction in American history. Alaska has a surface area about six times larger than Romania’s, but a population of roughly 700,000, about the same as our Cluj County. It is very rich in gold and many other minerals and was sold for $7.2 million, about $5 per square kilometer.
Through two island settlements, Little Diomede (USA) and Big Diomede (Russia), Americans and Russians are, in fact, only three kilometers apart. That gives us the first explanation for choosing Alaska as the meeting location: it is the geographically closest point between the USA and Russia, suggesting proximity and perhaps a future alignment of interests.
For Trump, the location is convenient, he can proudly claim he brought Putin onto U.S. soil for negotiations. For Putin, in turn, it is an opportunity to boast in Russia about his courage in setting foot on adversary territory.
Beyond the shared Russo-American history of Alaska, the meeting will reignite debate in Russia about reclaiming the territory. Just last year, Putin signed a decree mandating the recovery of all Russian lands worldwide, and the American press speculated that Alaska was in his sights. The subject was even addressed at the White House.
It’s also clear that the chosen location will put back on the table the complex issue of dividing influence in the Arctic between Russia and America. That region is the new El Dorado for resource exploitation and strategic new maritime routes—currently dominated only by Russia. I can say, therefore, that the location agreed upon by Trump and Putin opens, beyond the negotiations over Ukraine, a new geopolitical chapter on power-sharing in the New World Order.
In the coming days, I will analyze in detail how the meeting arrangements progress and what each actor might obtain. Today, I offer only a brief synthesis of the realistic stakes and consequences.
Russia will not accept leaving without the territories it has already taken from Ukraine. Most likely, Putin will focus on negotiating the future role of certain NATO countries on Ukrainian soil, putting back on the table his view that the situation falls under the jurisdiction of the United Nations (UN).
On Ukraine’s behalf, Trump will first demand from the Russians money for Ukraine’s reconstruction, as well as guarantees that the rest of Ukrainian territory will remain intact. Without being publicly reported, it’s clear that much of the discussion will focus on dividing the contracts for the reconstruction operation. We are talking here about trillions of dollars.
On this front, the American is also mandated to defend EU interests, since the EU contributed to the war effort but has now been excluded from the talks. On the other side, Putin will represent Chinese interests, as China has leased about a third of Ukraine’s farmland until 2063 and thus needs privileged access to the port of Odessa to ship its products, an interest shared by major U.S. companies that, through Zelensky-signed decrees, have purchased even more Ukrainian land.
The future international status of Ukraine is very important to determine, but the fate of Zelensky himself is less so, most likely he will be guaranteed, at best, freedom, and possibly even his life—and I stress, possibly.
For now, I sum it up like this: Russia and China appear poised to achieve their major geopolitical goals, the very reason they have allied so closely in recent times, while America will manage to recoup the money it has spent on the Ukrainian war, along with many additional gains from future deals, as is the American way.
The EU and Ukraine will be the big losers in the short term, with limited chances of real compensation later. And of course, Trump will consolidate his status as a frontrunner for the Nobel Peace Prize, a prize important for him to match the prestige of other former U.S. presidents, but entirely useless for the USA. This award would only keep the American leader warm until the end of the year, when he will be hit by the complicated global geopolitical situation, internal economic crises within the USA, and, above all, the political battles the Democrats will launch against him ahead of the 2028 elections.
I predict at least one more round of Trump–Putin talks, already hinted at by the Russians, which will take place on Russian soil next time. I therefore suspect that Zelensky and his backers from international high finance will only be brought into the negotiations later, in the autumn.
It is worth watching closely what happens in the Trump–Putin talks, not only because they will also decide influence in the Black Sea region, and thus in Romania, but above all because these are the most important geopolitical negotiations in the last 80 years, since the end of World War II. And, with the misfortune that we Romanians once again find ourselves in the wrong camp, you can at least take satisfaction in witnessing a major event marking a shift in the world order.
