Author: Cozmin Gușă
Starting today, the Transnistrian army, estimated to have about 2000 troops, is starting military exercises with an initial duration of three months. “The information comes in the context in which Ukraine admitted that it had gathered troops on the border with Transnistria. (The Ukrainian armed forces confirm that they have gathered troops on the border with Transnistria). The Russian Federation has repeatedly accused Ukraine of wanting to invade Transnistria. According to the Russian Defense Ministry, the Kiev regime has intensified preparations for a provocation with an unrecognized invasion of Transnistria, which it intends to carry out in response to the alleged offensive of Russian forces there”. (ziuanews)
In order to understand the gravity of the military event in the proximity of Romania, I will present here a brief description of the region. Transnistria has declared itself an autonomous Republic in the context of the collapse of the USSR, it has an area of about 4000 km2 and a population of 450000 inhabitants (about a third of self-declared Russians, Moldovans and Ukrainians), deployed along the Dniester River. After the conflict of 30 years ago, Moscow established a so-called peacekeeping force (the number of about 2000 soldiers starting military exercises today), with the role of intimidation, but also to guard the 20000 tons of conventional Russian weapons and ammunition stored in Cobasna, on the left side of the river. In 2006, a referendum was organised in which the majority of the population voted for Transnistria’s independence from Moldova and its accession to the Russian Federation. The geostrategic importance of the territory was marked at the beginning of the Ukrainian war, on March 4, 2022 the Ukrainian army detonated the bridge connecting Transnistria to the Ukrainian region of Odessa. Moldovans are energy dependent on Transnistrian people, being supplied with electricity through the Cuciurgan Thermal Power plant, the Russians being able to maneuver them by simply pressing the right buttons. If Moldova could be considered an enclave country, being caught strictly between Ukraine and Romania, then Transnistria would be the “enclave of the enclave”, but the one with the role of warhead that can be detonated in the next period. In connection with this, the experts assessed a possible detonation of the Cobasna munitions as having at least the effect and force of the Hiroshima bomb, except the nuclear radiation part.
The operation “coup d’etat in Chişinău” has settled down, as the international community has noted, but the main effect has been the cancellation of the public authority of Maia Sandu, who is now perceived as an unserious president. However, the other operation, the thawing of the Transnistrian conflict, has remained in execution, an operation that officially starts today. A week ago, the Russians canceled the action under false flag of the Ukrainians from the Azov Battalion, publicly revealing that they wanted to attack Transnistria disguised as Russian soldiers, and then Maia Sandu will have officially asked for the military support of Ukraine, which would have entered with the troops toward Tiraspol, but with the main target being the Cobasna warehouse. Putin had earlier canceled the agreement with Moldova on Transnistria, and the first effect is what we see today, with the beginning of the military exercises of the Transnistrian army, which were triggered after the announcement of the Ukrainians that they gathered troops on the border with Transnistria.
What is expected to happen in the coming period? Through an (unprovoked) incident, the Ukrainian and Transnistrian troops already face-to-face, are to start hostilities. Russia has already warned that it has airborne troops ready to intervene quickly in the conflict, so carnage is possible in the coming days. Moldovans will declare themselves as a country militarily assaulted by Russia, so it is predictable that NATO will decide on urgent military support for Moldova, which will be transformed into a war theater, similarly to the model of Ukraine. Russia can activate the result of the referendum in 2006, by which Transnistria voted to join the Russian Federation and, on the model of Donbas, the Transnistrian territory to be incorporated into Russia. From here, the Russian offensive for the occupation of southern Ukraine can begin, with immediate target Odessa, but with the consecutive targeting of the mouths of the Danube, on the Ukrainian side.
Despite the loud and unrealistic statements, Ukraine no longer has the military potential to support this front (and Moldova is totally lacking military infrastructure!), so it is certain that NATO will seek solutions to counter the Russians through direct interventions. The country of service today can only be Romania, the sister country of Moldova, which also has in force a technical-military cooperation treaty with Ukraine, signed by Nicolae Ciucă himself in September 2020, when he was Minister of Defense.
Now we understand better why last Tuesday Biden asked for applause for Maia Sandu. They were encouraging, because the Americans had already decided that they would send her to war against the Russians, but leading the Ukrainian and Romanian troops, because there is no such thing as Moldovan troops. May I be wrong in this reasoning, but the way the Biden-Nuland couple has acted so far clearly suggests this terrifying prospect!
