Author: Cozmin Gușă
The presidential elections in Turkey take place on Sunday, and their stakes involve the maximum attention of the planetary power players. It is not an exaggeration to tell you that on the victory or defeat of Erdogan depends the maintaining the current geopolitical trend of the world or its end, Turkey has come to count as a geopolitical pivot in recent decades, the importance of the country growing almost exponentially against the background of the crisis within the Euro-Atlantic bloc, respectively of the emergence of world organizations such as BRICS or SCO.
In the pre-election campaign, Turkey suffered terribly from the devastating earthquake, the scientific causes of which are still shrouded in speculation that the disaster was artificially caused. After several days of mourning and grief, Erdogan was directly attacked by the Turkish opposition and the Western media, being held responsible for the faulty design and construction of housing estates, carried out by companies politically protected by his regime. Two weeks ago, the same Erdogan was put to bed for a few days, suffering a hard and strange crisis, the causes of which remained unexplained, the exposed diagnosis of intestinal flu being considered insufficient to explain the almost total physical collapse of the Turkish president. The truth about the two events will remain in the dark for a long time, with neither Erdogan nor his international opponents benefiting from its exposure.
But who are Erdogan’s international opponents? Undoubtedly, the most important adversary is the US, whose intra-NATO strategies are greatly hampered by Turkey, whose military, excluding nuclear weapons, is the second in NATO in terms of human and material potential. Erdogan learned this long ago, with the 2016 coup attempt being used to purge pro-Americans from the Turkish military and civil society. However, the Americans could not attack Erdogan openly, his potential for blackmail on the NATO bloc being overwhelming. To his military potential the control of the flow of refugees to Europe is added, the almost 4 million Syrians sheltered and fed by Turkey could have the effect of a bomb in stages, if the exodus to European countries is opened for them. There are many other geopolitical arguments blocking the direct American attack on Erdogan, Turkey’s major influence on the border of the Muslim world, from Azerbaijan to Iran, plus the military presence on Syrian territory, being eloquent. The blackmail potential of Erdogan on Biden and his close ones like Victoria Nuland is also not without importance, an example being the shelter and protection that the Turk has offered to the Moldovan billionaire Vlad Plahotniuc for four years, he has important data about the corruption of the Americans mentioned, whom he managed to bribe when he was the de facto ruler of Moldova.
Erdogan has stable political friends, Putin and Xi being the most important of a long list, they know well the utility of a Turkey led by their friend in the planetary struggle they are coordinating to invalidate the US as world leader. If Erdogan wins on Sunday, it is a foregone conclusion that Turkey will benefit from a privileged role in BRICS and the SCO, and the country’s status as a geopolitical pivot will be put to good use for major corrosive actions even within NATO. If Erdoğan loses the election, as the western press records by publishing polls (completely rigged in my opinion), the foreseeable scenario in the short to medium term is internal chaos, perhaps even a Turkish war well fueled by external military resources provided to the camps by the US, respectively by the Moscow-Beijing axis. In this perspective, it is clear that the current BRICS-SCO offensive is catching up, but it is equally clear that the camps of the world power players will radicalize their military and sabotage actions, that is, we will see the red light of a danger alert on the horizons extreme for the planet. To briefly justify this, I tell you that, consecutively, if Erdogan loses the leadership, then it is predictable that the Americans will detonate the revolt in Pakistan, where both Russia, but especially China, have great strategic interests.
Erdogan’s main opponent is Kemal Kilicdaroglu, a 74-year-old faded politician who has enough weaknesses to make him irrelevant as a potential winner under normal circumstances, but in the complicated context outlined above, he is motorized underground by the established means of the Americans. My prediction is that Erdogan will win on Sunday, the event of his “black swan on the Bosphorus” defeat, not being properly prepared.
