Author: Cozmin Gușă
If the war in Israel had not broken out, we would all have commented in the last few days on the elections in Poland, which are taking place today. Their geopolitical effect will be a determining one for the orientation of NATO’s eastern front, with immediate influence on the magnitude of support for Ukraine, respectively in the established conflict between the USA and Russia.
Poland is ruled by the sovereignist PiS party (the political partner of the Romanian AUR), ruled with an iron hand by Jaroslaw Kaczynski, who is presented by the press as a cat-loving bachelor who directs every government decision from his home in the center of Warsaw, which is a place of pilgrimage for the president and prime minister of Poland. PiS’s opponent is the Civic Platform, with a predominantly neo-Marxist orientation, a party led by Donald Tusk, the former president of the European Council, and he is presented as a puppet of Washington and Brussels, a politician who aims to destroy the sovereignist-Christian foundation upon which Poland has consolidated itself in recent decades. The opinion polls, manipulated regardless, show those from PiS in the lead, with a score that could approach 40%, followed by those from the Civic Platform, at a difference that varies between 5% and 15%. The problem that will arise from this evening is a coalition that will ensure the majority necessary for government, the smaller parties have built their electoral campaign through messages of non-alignment with the two dominant parties, but everything will change after the polls close. There is a dense external monitoring of the conduct of the electoral process, it should be noted that the large OSCE delegation of international observers also includes George Simion (AUR president), respectively Dan Barna (USR-PLUS), who are of course in the opposition of positioning/support even on Polish soil.
If PiS will win the elections with a score that allows it to extend its government, this ensures the continuity of internal projects, but it no longer guarantees the same geopolitical game inside the Euro-Atlantic bloc. First of all, PiS will reconsider its relationship with the White House, whose messengers and agents like Soros have worked intensively in recent months to support Tusk and the Civic Platform, campaigning in the media but also in the streets for the need to change the government coordinated by Kaczynski. The major signal of Poland’s non-alignment with the US decisions was already given, by blocking the export of grain from Ukraine, followed by Zelenskiy’s public insult, things that suggested the future isolation of Ukraine in the international environment. Poland’s gestures had the effect of “breaking the NATO front”, something that would be difficult to patch up, he will in fact open the ball for the renegotiation of the positions of Ukraine’s neighbours, in order Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, respectively Romania, the last on the list, in its usual losing “Iliescu” style.
If Tusk and the Civic Platform get an unexpectedly high score, with the possibility of coagulating an American-powered majority, it is predictable that Poland will majorly reset its domestic and foreign policies, with great potential for domestic and regional turbulence. In addition to the implementation of pro-LGBT policies as a major reset component, together with the blocking of sovereignist-Christian tendencies, the appearance of an “unlimited” strategic partnership with Zelenskiy’s regime is predictable. Along these lines, I do not rule out a possible future US proxy role for Poland in a likely escalation of the US-Russian conflict as we approach the presidential elections in Russia, then in the US.
This is the sketch of the Polish picture that will be drawn starting tomorrow in our region, some consequences you already suspect based on the description above, others we will find out and they will be spectacular, because, in any variant of the future Polish government, they will start an asymmetric geopolitical war, which will change the texture of the relationship in our region.
