Author: Cozmin Gușă
Two days ago I pointed out the special geopolitical significance of the military conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh, with the immediate possibility of highlighting the Russian-Turkish control of the Caucasus, the south-eastern border of Europe, respectively with that of the military reorientation of Turkey, which no longer obeys long ago NATO directives. I detailed the description of the situation on Wednesday in an analysis on GOLD FM (Gușa: Nagorno-Karabakh and the thawing of frozen conflicts. The NATO-Russia war multiplies in the Caucasus and becomes sophisticated! (realitatea.net)), and I explained what Nagorno- Karabakh represents for Armenia, respectively for Azerbaijan, the more than 35 years of the conflict, but also the way Russia and Turkey coordinate their diplomacy today in order to succeed in marking their joint control over the south-eastern flank of Europe, of course with the tacit agreement of Iran.
I also say that in the last year, against the backdrop of the energy crisis, Azerbaijan has become the favorite of the Euro-Atlantic bloc, which hopes, in an amateurish way, that the Azeris will obey their strategy and become the European alternative for gas and oil supplies, after the decision to eliminate Russia from the circuit.
I repeat three press headlines from the last few days, which correctly summarize what happened on the Azerbaijani-Armenian front (stiripesurse):
„Armenia distances itself from Russia and receives American troops. The Kremlin is „deeply analyzing” the new orientation.” (09/06/2023)
„Azerbaijan defies the US – Military operations continue in Nagorno-Karabakh.” (20/09/2023)
„Putin summons Aliev: the leader of Azerbaijan apologizes and begins the purge in the army.” (21/09/2023)
To make it even clearer, I add a short summary. Armenia conducted joint exercises with American troops on its own territory, thus signaling that it is no longer satisfied with the protection of Russia, which, however, warned the Armenians that what they are doing is not good and that they will suffer harsh consequences. Subsequently, with the agreement of Turkey, the Russians suggested to the Azerbaijanis that the would agree to an attack the Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh, and Alyyev ordered the military offensive, to which the US and the EU protested in vain. The Azerbaijanis thus generated the rapid capitulation of the Armenian troops, who decided to do this after a conversation between Putin and the Prime Minister of Armenia, who saw himself abandoned by the Americans and Europeans who had promised him support. All this time, the Azerbaijani president ignored any call from the US but, in the end, according to the original plan, he indirectly recognized Putin’s tutelage, apologizing to Putin for the „disturbance” he created and publicly promising him that he would punish those in his army responsible for killing several Russian peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh. The immediate conclusions are that Armenia remains a “pariah” for the time being, with predictable large protest movements following its defeat, which will destabilize it, and thus punish it for trying to „dance with the Americans”, and Azerbaijan is getting stronger by a symbolic and long-overdue victory, but helping Russia to signal that it is the leader of military games, discrediting the potential for aid that America or the EU might offer.
In Washington and Brussels, the leaders of our bloc are agitating uselessly and foolishly, consistent with a gross lack of expertise and vision, and the consequences of the event in Nagorno-Karabakh will quickly and deeply influence the unfolding of the great NATO-Russia conflict, marked now also by this great symbolic victory for Putin, well supported by Erdogan, the president of Turkey, a NATO member.