I have noticed, in the last 3 days, that the media or analysts are not commenting on the UN vote, or on the statements of the Secretary General, Antonio Guterres, both anti-Israel and pro-Palestine. Some don’t get it, and some pretend they don’t. I will start a series of discussions related to the movements that I foresee in the future at the level of the United Nations Organization, which will become an extremely interesting geopolitical scene in the next period.
First let me tell you that I have known Antonio Guterres well for 22 years. When he was the prime minister of Portugal and the president of the Socialist International, several PSD leaders from that time, with me in the foreground, had negotiated with him the Romanian Social Democratic Party’s (PSD) admission into to the Socialist International, but at the governmental level they discussed, with Adrian Năstase and other ministers, various chapters related to Romania’s integration into NATO, Guterres being our presenter as the man of the Americans. That’s who he was and that’s who he remained, an intelligent and politically well-oriented guy, anointed with all the oils, as it were; proof that it is so, immediately after he was no longer prime minister or president of the Socialist International, he was quickly reinstated by the United States of America in an important position. Americans supported Guterres’ appointment to the UN as the UN High Representative for Refugees, a post he held for nearly 11 years from 2005 to 2016.
From here you can deduce that Guterres took care of the Palestinian cause, and since 2008 he coordinated these actions under the guidance of Barack Obama, who became the president of the USA, with whom he also developed a friendship, often evoked publicly. This friendship later brought him the appointment as Secretary General of the UN in 2016, with Obama personally taking care of gathering the necessary support for Guterres to be voted in, a job well illustrated by the picture in the Oval Office at the end of Obama’s term, a picture taken before the beginning of the mandate of Antonio Guterres in New York, at the General Secretariat of the UN. So, that Guterres is America’s man at the UN is known, he also demonstrated this by canceling the authority of the UN during the Ukrainian war in the last almost 2 years, but he proves now that he remained Obama’s man, when he takes the side of Palestine openly , acting in the wake of the messages of the former American president, who obviously opposes the strategy of the White House, as we also presented to you last week, and in a series of analyses this weekend.
Don’t imagine that Guterres, such a tough but cautious guy, became a hero overnight. No, he acted in the case of the resolution of the conflict, of humanitarian truce and in the case of the public statements in a remote-guided way and with the assurance that nothing would happen, and it is even clear that he influenced the anti-Israel vote at the level of a few dozen banana states that are always waiting guidance from the head of the UN and that’s how the majority needed to pass that resolution was reached.
The UN has been considered since its inception to be an organization under the patronage of the United States of America, and there were hardly any moments in the last 80 years when this was denied. Friday’s ultra-majority vote against stated US interests marks a first of huge significance, even if that vote and its outcome were quickly invalidated by Netanyahu-ordered attacks on civilians in Gaza. For the moment, the UN appears, as it has been lately, a quasi-useless organization, but the actual loss of US authority in organized votes will have great consequences and will be speculated even by America’s opponents, grouped under the authority of the binomial Russia- China.
Returning to Guterres and Obama, whose duet game was public, and it is unequivocally clear that now it has been revealed who the real boss in the US is, namely Obama&company, but also that Guterres is confident that he will somehow return to power after 2024, and he, in turn, will be secured in the last years of his mandate as UN chief, a mandate that ends in 2026. In a complementary interpretation, however, we can also deduce that America is preparing a backup plan through Barack Obama, in the clear hypothesis already in which the Biden administration will get on the fence and be invalidated soon, starting from this very Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The UN stage will be the most suitable for supporting a recalibration of US foreign policy, which will give it the opportunity to remain at the table of great geopolitical games, and it will do so with the support of the Guterres factor, who will use the opportunity to presents himself as a reformer of the UN. That’s clearly the game; it is not as clear, however, whether it will be a successful one for the Obama and Guterres camp. The Republicans have gained power and will do anything to invalidate it. We will comment on this in the coming days also on Gold FM.